Lower Mortgage Quotes Don’t Boost US Housing Market

US housing market

Easing mortgage rates this week failed to give the beleaguered housing market a boost as potential buyers continue to sit on the sidelines, lacking the confidence to come to the closing table.

Earlier Thursday, Freddie Mac (FRE) said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.04%, with an average 0.6 point for the week ending Oct. 23. That’s down from last week’s 6.46% and last year’s 6.33%. The weekly drop was the largest since the end of November, 1981.

The Northeast came in with the highest average, 6.11% with the same point average. The Southwest’s 5.99%, with a 0.7 point - what is paid to buy down the mortgage rate - was the lowest. Fifteen-year fixed, meanwhile, averaged 5.72%, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week’s 6.14% and last year’s 5.99%.

The rates fell “amid news of tame inflation and a weaker housing market,” noted Frank Nothaft, Virginia-based Freddie Mac’s vice president and chief economist.

The trend could continue. With 10-year treasury yields down and the credit market beginning to thaw, rates should slip below 6% by this time next week, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com.

“There are many other problems the housing market is struggling with and these lower rates aren’t going to win the day, but at least they help,” he said, adding that 6% is a psychological “benchmark.”

Even though better rates could help lure buyers into the market - lower rates mean a cheaper payment andhelp with refinancing - the news did little to ease the frazzled market. Shares of Freddie, which has plunged 98% year-to-date, fell nearly 9% to 76 cents, while the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index plunged nearly 18%, dragged down after three major builders detailed painful quarters this week. Beazer Homes USA (BZH) led the decline, with a 27% drop to $2.29. Several of largest saw daily drops topping 20%.

Even if rates drop again next week, consumers still face the same problems. Scores of lenders are now out of business.

The crisis spread to Wall Street, and job losses are mounting: The Wall Street Journal reported that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) is preparing to cut about 10% of its 32,500 employees, while General Motors (GM) is laying off salaried workers.

That, combined with falling home prices, is adding to a foreclosure glut. Earlier Thursday, RealtyTrac said that third-quarter foreclosure filings - default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions - soared 71% from a year earlier. Last month, filings were recorded on one out of every 475 housing units last month.

While buyers are snapping up bargain-priced foreclosures - some selling below replacement cost - mortgage applications filed last week decreased a seasonally adjusted 16.6% from the week earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association said recently. Weekly application volume hasn’t been lower since the end of 2000.

As it announced the lower average mortgage, Freddie Mac pointed out the home builder’s pain: New construction on one-family homes fell 12% in September to an annual rate of 544,000 homes, the lowest since February 1982; single-family housing starts are 70% below the January 2006 peak; and builder confidence is at an all-time low.

“In short, it’s a tough market that just got more difficult with the current uncertainties,” said

Steven C. Petruska, Pulte Homes Inc.’s (PHM) executive vice president and chief operating officer, during the company’s earnings conference call earlier Thursday.

But one mortgage broker thinks the presidential election will help calm the ” fence sitters,” or people who need to buy a house, but are waiting as prices and rates fall.

“We will see a return probably relatively quickly to normalcy after Nov. 4,” said Ritch Workman, president of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers. ” They’ve got their rates, they’ve got their prices. The last thing left is consumer confidence. There’s a period at the end of the sentence finally.”

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